Rising War of Words Involving Ethiopia and Eritrea Sparks Fears of Conflict

Increasing worries exist regarding the potential of military engagement between Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in the past few weeks.

Horn of Africa region
Ethiopia and Eritrea cooperated in the armed struggle in northern Ethiopia but they have later become estranged.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in last year that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a border war broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and hinted at the desire to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Statements

Despite continuous warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to brief comments on online platforms from Information Minister the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking former lands.

The information ministry alerted on mid-September that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Border

There have been little evidence of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was governed by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British military before becoming a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their mutual frontier, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this finished in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a statement that the conflict was over – a action that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet ties have later worsened again.

Spencer Bates
Spencer Bates

Elara is a senior DevOps engineer with over a decade of experience in open source cloud technologies and infrastructure automation.