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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd